As 2025 comes to an end, bitcoin price We are at a critical crossroads. Looking at the chart, we can see that BTC price is hovering around $88,400 and trading within the narrow Bollinger Band range of $85,800 to $90,200. After months of sideways movement, price movements often form a compression pattern prior to a large directional move. at the same time, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25bps rate cut and lowered the federal funds range to 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling the first policy easing in more than a year. This change could have a major impact on Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin price prediction: what the chart shows
On the daily time frame, Bitcoin price is just above the 20-day SMA, suggesting mild bullish momentum. However, the upper Bollinger Band around $90,276 remains a strong resistance level. The band has been shrinking since early December, a sign of decreasing volatility and potential breakout tension.
Below current levels, support lies at $85,800 (S1) and $81,900 (S2, Fibonacci 0.382), while the next strong lower bound lies around $78,000 (Fibonacci 0.618). On the upside, a confirmed breakout above $90,200 could pave the way to $95,000, and if momentum accelerates, it could reach $100,000, perhaps in early 2026.
Momentum traders are watching the Bollinger squeeze closely. If BTC price closes above the midline for three consecutive sessions, it could mark the beginning of a new trend phase. Conversely, a breakdown below $85,000 could trigger a sharp retest of the lower Fibonacci levels.
Macro tailwinds: Fed pivot and risk appetite
of December 2025 FOMC Minutes Highlight display Shift to policy relaxation amid a cooling labor market and slowing inflation. Nine of the 12 committee members voted in favor of lowering interest rates, citing increased downside risks to employment and the view that inflation would trend back towards 2%.
This is important because rates often improve in environments with low rates. Liquidity sensitive assets Like Bitcoin. When yields fall, investors tend to move capital away from traditional bonds and into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. The Fed also made a new announcement. Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) Issuance of Treasury Bills to maintain sufficient liquidity – effectively adding another liquidity injection mechanism
The combination of these factors suggests that the dollar will weaken in early 2026, which historically coincides with bullish phases in Bitcoin prices. Although short-term inflation remains slightly above target, the overall message is that the Fed is prioritizing stabilizing growth, which could revive speculative appetite.
Can Bitcoin price break through the 90,000 barrier?
Market structure suggests that Bitcoin is reeling in a direction after an extended decline from October to November. of fibonacci retracement It shows that BTC price is already recovering. 0.236 zone — is often the first sign of an attempted reversal.
When trading volume is accompanied by an upward push $90,000 – $91,000the next rising zone is 0.382 Pivot around $95,000followed by $100,000 psychological resistance. These levels are not just technical markers, but also sentiment thresholds. If the price can decisively break above $90,000, there is a possibility that institutional investor participation, which had cooled down, will be revived in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Risk factors: persistently high inflation and post-halving fatigue
Despite the Fed’s dovish tone, some members warned: Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. If data released in the first quarter of 2026 shows that price pressures are rising again, hopes for a rate cut could quickly fade and liquidity could become tight again.
In cryptocurrency-specific terminology, Bitcoin’s Integration after halving And waning interest in retail stores continues to dampen enthusiasm. Without a clear catalyst such as ETF inflows or large-scale on-chain accumulation, false breakouts can still occur.
Traders should also take note. US Dollar Index (DXY) —If there is a rebound, BTC’s upside could stall near the current resistance level.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bitcoin’s Future Direction in 2026
If the macro environment continues to ease, Bitcoin prices could trend higher. Recovery measured towards Q1 2026For the purpose of Ranges from $95,000 to $100,000. The combination of technical compression and new liquidity from the Fed’s Treasury purchases creates an ideal backdrop for a rescue package.
But January will test the market’s patience. The key is Will $BTC be able to maintain its daily closing price above $88,000?. If the strength there persists, it will confirm that the bulls are regaining control, and 2026 could start with Bitcoin returning to its six-digit ambitions.
