Bitcoin prices remain at a fragile stage in the broader market structure, with repeated attempts at recovery and lingering macro uncertainty. Structurally, the market is in a state of transition, leaving some buoyant expansion but not yet fully capitulating.
After all, current price trends reflect a tug-of-war between long-term conviction holders and short-term speculative flows. Nevertheless, on-chain data suggests that this premium cryptocurrency is likely to embark on further declines.
CVDD: Bitcoin compass to lowest price cycle since 2012
In a recent post on the X Platform, market analyst Ali Martinez revealed that Cumulative Value – Days of Destruction (CVDD) has identified Bitcoin’s bottom since 2012. According to crypto experts, the indicator is one of the most respected long-term on-chain indicators for identifying structural lows, and its current value is $45,225.
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Launched by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, CVDD is a long-term Bitcoin valuation indicator designed to identify major market bottoms by analyzing the behavior of long-term holders. To understand CVDD, you need to be aware of Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).
CDD is all the Bitcoins that have accumulated in your wallet without being moved. Currently, CVDD tracks the cumulative historical value of destroyed coins in days and adjusts it into a valuation model to produce price levels that historically match the bottoms of major Bitcoin cycles.
Since 2012, CVDD has consistently marked major Bitcoin price bottoms with remarkable accuracy. This model essentially measures when old, long-held coins are used. This is because long-term holders tend to be distributed near the top of the cycle and accumulate during deep bearish phases.
Is Bitcoin on a hidden safety net?
Over time, CVDD has served as a price floor during severe drawdowns. In past cycles, including the 2015 bear market bottom, 2018 capitulation, and 2022 decline, Bitcoin prices have often approached or briefly fallen below the CVDD line before showing a long-term recovery.
CVDD currently sits at $45,225, which represents a level that many would consider a deep value zone within the current market structure. This does not necessarily mean that prices have to fall to this level, but rather that it will serve as historically important structural support should broader market conditions deteriorate further..
When BTC trades comfortably above CVDD, it usually indicates that the market remains in a healthier macro position. On the other hand, when Bitcoin price compresses towards it, sentiment often turns pessimistic and tends to strengthen long-term accumulation.
As Bitcoin stabilizes within its current range, it may be useful to monitor whether the price maintains sufficient distance above the $45,225 CVDD level. A decisive move towards this goal could signal deeper corrective pressures, but any sustained strength beyond it would strengthen the case that the broader cycle remains structurally intact.
As of this writing, BTC is worth around $70,000, reflecting a modest price increase of nearly 2% over the past day.
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
