Crypto Market Preparing for Friday’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) Inflation Reportthe Federal Reserve can decide whether to cut fees in October or continue to raise them for longer. Traders see this macroeconomic catalyst as a potential turning point, as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP all show weaknesses on daily charts.
Crypto Market: Why is inflation reporting important?
The Fed shows a shift towards labor market support after the initial cuts this year. But inflation remains stubbornly above A target of 2%. Core PCE is expected to rise slightly from 2.9% year-on-year since July, while headline inflation is projected to rise slightly from 2.6% to 2.7%. If readings get hotter than expected, the Fed could suspend, reinforcing the expensive environment where risky assets, including crypto, are traditionally weighed.
For crypto traders, this means short-term borrowing costs, reduced liquidity, and a continuing preference for yielding assets like the Treasury Department. Behind the scenes, softer inflation prints could rekindle bullish narratives, with market pricing being actively relaxed by the end of the year.
Crypto Market: Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) has returned to about 109,300 after not holding it above 112,000. The hikin ash candle shows a continuous red bar, reflecting consistent sales pressure. The Bollinger band is expanding, with BTC testing nearly 109,600 lower bands suggesting an expansion of negativeness.
Important levels to see:
- Support: 107,500 (S1 pivot), followed by 104,000 (S2 pivot).
- Resistance: 112,000 short term, then 116,000 if momentum is reversed.
Hotier PCE prints could accelerate breakdowns below 107,500, but more cooler reads will allow BTC to regain 112,000 and retest 116,000 immediately.
Crypto Market: Ethereum Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum (ETH) is just below 3,920, below the 20-day moving average. Like BTC, Eth’s Heikin Ashi candles remain bearish, hovering just above critical support at 3,800. Bollinger bands are beginning to incite, hinting at more volatility.
Important levels to see:
- Support: 3,800 (psychological and technical level), followed by 3,400.
- Resistance: 4,100, 4,400.
If inflation becomes hot, there is a risk that ETH will slide into 3,400 zones. Conversely, soft readings could result in ETH regaining 4,100 and potentially pushing back to resistance of 4,400.
Crypto Market: XRP Daily Chart Analysis
XRP is facing sharper pressure, trading around 2.75 after falling nearly 3% that day. This structure shows a series of low highs since mid-September, with XRP currently testing key support zones between 2.70 and 2.60. A break below this could cause a sudden drop to 2.40.
Important levels to see:
- Support: 2.70–2.60, 2.40.
- Resistance: 2.95, then 3.10.
The XRP vulnerability reflects a higher beta compared to BTC and ETH. Traders could punish XRP hard with Hawkish’s inflation surprise.
Total crypto market capitalization outlook
The total crypto market capitalization reached 3.69 trillion, retreating from its recent high. Daily charts show the expansion of the red high-eyed candle and the lower bollinger band, indicating overall weakness. Support is 3.60T, and there is a deeper risk towards 3.40T as sales accelerate.
This confirms that the market is consistent with macro conditions rather than isolated altcoins or sector strength.
What’s coming next?
If PCE on Friday is above expectations: $BTC is likely below 107,500, $ETH may test 3,400, $XRP risks sliding to 2.40. The market capitalization could fall below 3.60T.
If the PCE is softer than expected: BTC could bounce back to 116,000, ETH scores 4,400, and XRP has shots at 3.10. The market capitalization could exceed 3.90T.
For now, the charts are bearish, but the PCE report is the decisive catalyst for setting the Q4 tone.
