XRP price is probably Trading in a bearish mood, But the supply that exchanges hold behind the scenes shows that Trends that could become important to The direction of prices in the coming months. According to a recent report by 21Shares, foreign exchange reserves have fallen to 1.7 billion XRP, a seven-year low. This report shows how liquidity strains, ETF demand, and investor behavior are quietly changing. Preparing for possible XRP price revision In 2026.
Decreasing supply on XRP exchanges satisfies demand for ETFs
According to 21Shares, XRP’s price action in 2026 will be shaped by three pillars: regulatory clarity, significant investor demand through spot ETFs, and realistic adoption of XRPL. as stated in the report of The Swiss-based financial services company has foreign exchange reserves of approximately 1.7 billion XRP, the lowest level in more than seven years.
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This number matches There is demand from institutional investors for XRP ETFsit is increasingly intersecting with communities adopting the outlook of holding. This reduction in easily tradable supply, if sustained throughout the year, causes non-linear repricing. According to 21Shares, this is creating a supply shock mechanism that mirrors Reddit’s GameStop revolution.
U.S. ETF products attract more than $1.3 billion in first month, record consecutive inflows despite market conditions There have also been outflows from other crypto ETFs. This persistent demand, in the report’s view, signals a shift from speculative trading to structured capital allocation. Although cumulative net inflows for these ETFs have increased, this demand remains strong. It has since declined At the time of writing, it is $1.18 billion.
The report also looks at an analogue to the path set by Bitcoin spot ETFs, which say nearly $38 billion in net inflows have doubled the price of Bitcoin from $40,000 to $100,000 in less than a year. With this precedent in mind, XRP’s market capitalization at the time of the ETF’s creation was much smaller, about one-eighth of Bitcoin’s, meaning that inflows would have a proportionally larger impact on price discovery. According to 21Shares, XRP’s capital velocity is likely to rise even higher, and the reflexive price feedback loop is expected to be amplified if inflows continue.
XRP ETF assets. Source: 21 shares
2026 XRP price outlook
The 21Shares report posits that 2026 will be the year in which XRP’s valuation will be influenced by a combination of regulatory access, sustained ETF flows, and significant RWA volume on the XRP ledger. Regarding pricingshows a range of scenarios for 2026 centered around a base case peak of $2.45 (assigned a 50% probability), a bull case peak of $2.69 (30% probability), and a bear case peak of $1.60.
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The base case assumes that regulatory stability supports steady inflows of ETFs and gradual improvements in real-world utility, whereas the bull case relies on institutional-scale tokenization and tighter liquid supplies to generate stronger repricing effects. The bearish case, on the other hand, has to do with stagnant adoption and turnover of capital from XRP. Currently, XRP is trading around this bear case, with the bulls It is struggling to break above $1.6.
Featured image created by Dall.E, chart on Tradingview.com
