As Bitcoin continues to struggle to regain the $90,000 level, traders face a market defined more by hesitation than conviction. After yesterday’s bear market below $90,000, price action has returned to indecision territory, raising new questions about whether this decline is a temporary shakeout or the beginning of a deeper correction.
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Top analyst Axel Adler said a macro indicator called Trend Pulse can help explain why momentum has waned. Adler noted that since January 19, the market has remained in bearish mode, with no bullish phase present for 83 consecutive days. Two separate graphs support this change, showing both short-term momentum and quarterly results turning negative at the same time.
Trend Pulse recently went from neutral to bearish with a double negative setup. The 14-day return has flipped to red and the trend signal for SMA30 vs. SMA200 is also negative. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s quarterly return was only -19%, confirming macro weakness, but there are no extreme events that would indicate a definitive bottom.
Bitcoin remains in bear mode as macro signals remain negative
Adler points out that Bitcoin’s last bull mode signal occurred on November 2, 2025, or about 83 days ago, when BTC traded near $110,000. Since then, the market has not been able to regain structural strength. Even the neutral period from December 30 to January 18 proved too short and weak to reverse the long-term trend, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable once selling pressure returned.
Adler explained that the first sign of improvement is a 14-day return above zero, which would move the regime from bearish to neutral. However, a second condition is required to fully return to bull mode. That is, SMA30 exceeds SMA200. Given the current divergence between the two averages, a crossover may require a sustained 3-4 week rally rather than a short-term rebound.
Bitcoin price performance charts add macro context by tracking quarterly earnings (90D) as a proxy for sentiment. Historically, readings above +75% indicate euphoria, below 0% indicate pessimism, and below -30% indicate capitulation.
Bitcoin’s quarterly return remains close to -19%, which is negative but far from the height of a deep bear market. However, the 7-day change (-6.8%) suggests that the downward momentum is accelerating after the $90,000 breakdown.
The trend pulse and quarterly returns combined indicate moderate pessimism rather than a final capitulation, leaving the market with room to make decisions.
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BTC Moving Average Cap Recovery
Bitcoin is trading near $89,000 after failing to sustain the psychological level of $90,000, further reinforcing the market’s current indecision. The chart shows that BTC has had a low-to-high structure since its peak in early November, followed by a sharp decline that reset the price into a broad consolidating range. After bottoming out in late November, Bitcoin rallied, but struggled to build sustained momentum and stalled multiple times in its attempts to push toward the mid-$90,000 zone.
From a trend perspective, BTC remains under pressure below the major moving averages. Prices are trading below the green long-term average and the blue medium-term average, both of which are currently trending down, indicating that the broader momentum remains bearish.
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The most recent rejection occurred when BTC was briefly pushed into the $95,000-$97,000 area, only to roll over and fall toward the lows of the range. Meanwhile, the red long-term average remains well above the price near the low $100,000s, highlighting how far BTC needs to recover to re-establish a stronger macro uptrend.
Volume has increased on declines compared to rebounds, suggesting that downside movements are still being treated with more urgency. For bulls, the key is to get back above $90,000 and maintain above $92,000-$94,000. Otherwise, the chart remains at risk for a deeper decline towards the mid-$80,000 area.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
