Bitcoin’s recent selloff has caused traders to squint at the charts and ask the same straightforward question: correction or crash? Although prices have fallen significantly, some market watchers still see this as a major setback in a long-term uptrend. Others warn that the data shows a more bleak picture.
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Price decline and hard numbers
According to XWIN Research’s CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin has fallen about 46% from its peak around $126,000 and is currently trading around $67,900 after five consecutive months of decline.
The Fear and Greed Index is 14, labeled “Extreme Fear.” Net realized losses recently exceeded $13 billion, a level comparable to the worst of the recession in 2022, according to reports.
In 2024, approximately $10 billion in inflows contributed to boosting market capitalization. And in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed in as the overall market value shrank. The strange combination of large inflows and declining market capitalization suggests that selling pressure is stronger than new buying.
How price increases are masking quiet changes in Bitcoin structure
“The basic scenario is that Bitcoin has already experienced winter and recognition may be delayed due to higher prices and stronger structures.” – via @xwinfinance
Read more ⤵️ https://t.co/7soxNoBhqi pic.twitter.com/fEsSXpAmuK
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 11, 2026
Relationship between capital flows and price movements
The capital flow numbers are reportedly the most troubling fact for bulls. Money came in, but the value went down. Who sold on that demand? Large shareholders, paper traders, or complex derivatives desks may have booked profits or hedged positions.
Although the data alone does not reveal the seller’s name, this pattern is a red flag. On-chain metrics also reveal that realized profits are shrinking, even though prices are well above previous bear-era levels. As a result, the internal forces of the market tend to weaken over time.
Echoes of emotion and history
Some traders have pointed to a memory abnormality in which pain is felt less when nominal prices are high. People don’t want to relive the chaos of 2022. According to the report, the launch of spot ETFs and deepening institutional access have changed the plumbing of the market, which has given many people confidence.
However, sentiment readings during times of extreme fear often appear near the yield point. It’s worth remembering that realized losses peaked in 2022 about five months before the market bottom. This means that large losses can occur over a considerable period of time leading up to the final low.
Technical patterns and the big picture
Bitcoin has recorded a fourth straight month of declines, with a decline of 41% over the period. This streak was seen in 2018, not 2022. This pattern is important because similar sequences have led to long-term declines in the past.
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Bitcoin at a crossroads as XWIN shows signs of crypto winter
XWIN Research’s message is simple. Price is not the only thing that defines the cycle. What matters is who buys, who sells, and whether demand can absorb supply without market value shrinking.
For now, that balance appears skewed. The company believes the market should be cautious rather than optimistic until capital inflows begin to translate into sustained market capitalization growth and realized losses subside significantly. Winter may not have arrived in earnest, but the data shows that temperatures are clearly dropping.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
