executive summary
Bitcoin remains at a “air gap” of between $110,000 and $116,000 after signing from an all-time high in August. The bounce starting at $107,000 was supported by dip viewing, but sales pressure from short-term holders has so far reduced momentum. The for-profit organization has caused the realization of losses by three to six months’ holders recently by top buyers. To maintain the gathering, prices above $114,000 need to be stabilized to rebuild reliability and attract inflows. Meanwhile, ETF flow slowed to ~500 btc/day, weakening the demands of Tradfi, which had previously been refueling in March and December 2024. Futures standards and volumes remain balanced, with increasing open interest in options, referring to a more risk-controlled market structure. The market is at a crossroads, and recalling $114,000 can cause fresh momentum, but breakdowns below $108K expose the lower bands of the next cluster to nearly $93K.
The range of gaps
After a record high in mid-August, market momentum steadily declined, bringing Bitcoin down below the cost base of recent top buyers and returning to the “air gap” of $110,000 to $116,000. Since then, prices have fluctuated within this range and have gradually filled it as a relocation of supply. The key question now is whether this represents healthy integration or the first foot of deeper contraction.
As shown in the map (CBD) where supply was last acquired at the price level, the bounce from $108,000 was supported by clear buying pressure, a “shop” structure that helped stabilize the market.
This report examines sell-side dynamics and momentum across both chain and chain-off chain indicators, highlighting the forces most likely to drive Bitcoin’s next critical move from this range.
Mapping Power Cluster
First, we map the cost base of the current price cluster first, as these levels often lock in short-term price actions.
Based on the CBD heat map, three different cohorts of investors are currently shaping the price action.
Top buyers in the past three months have been close to 108.3k with $112.8K.short-holders clutching the pack from the past six months on a cost basis close to 113.8K last month.
These levels define the current trading range. Reclaiming $113.8K will return top buyers to earn profits and promote bullish continuity. However, a breakdown below 108.3K risks bringing back short-term holders to losses, creating updated sales pressure and paves the way towards $93K towards the lower band of the next major supply cluster.
Earn profits from veteran short-term holders
After identifying the immediate supply clusters around the current prices that form the range, we consider how different holder cohorts behaved from $108,000 to $114,000 during rebound.
Dip-Buyers provided support, but sales pressure was primarily brought from veteran short-term holders. The 3-6 month cohort achieves approximately $189 million per day (14-day SMA), accounting for approximately 79% of short-term holder profits. This suggests that investors who previously purchased in the February and May DIP used recent bounces to use profitable exits, creating a prominent headwind.
Top buyers who realize losses
In addition to making profits from veteran short-term investors, top buyers have recently weighed against the market by realizing losses during the same rebound.
The three-month cohort achieved a loss of up to $152 million per day (14-day SMA). This behavior reflects the early stress periods of April 2024 and January 2025.
For medium-term assembly to resume, demand must be strong enough to absorb these losses. Confirmation will be made if prices stabilize above $114,000, restore trust and promote new influx.
Fluidity absorbing the sell side
With both profit acquisition and loss realization putting pressure on the market, the next step is to assess whether there is strong new liquidity enough to absorb these sellers.
Net profit expressed as a share of market capitalization provides this measure. The 90-day SMA peaked at 0.065% during the August rally and has since declined. Although weaker than peak, current levels remained rising, suggesting that influx still provides support.
As long as the price is above $108,000, the liquidity background remains constructive. But deeper failures could discharge these influxes and stall more gatherings.
cordfi loses steam
It is also important to assess external demand through ETFs, a key factor in this cycle, beyond on-chain flow.
Since early August, US SPOTETF Netflows have fallen sharply, hovering near ±500 BTC per day (14 days SMA). This is far below the inflow intensity that supports previous gatherings in the current cycle, highlighting the loss of momentum from Tradfi investors. Given that ETFs play a pivotal role in rising, their slowdown adds vulnerability to the current structure.
Spotlight derivatives
On-chain liquid softening and declining demand for ETFs have shifted attention to the derivatives market, often setting a tone when spots become weaker.
Volume delta bias, which measures the deviation of cumulative volume delta from the median of 90 days, is recovered during rebound from $108,000, signaling seller fatigue across venues such as Binance and Bybit. This suggests that futures traders have helped them absorb recent sales pressures.
Future evolution of derivative positioning will be important for navigating the market in this low-spot fluid environment.
A balanced futures market
Looking deeper into the future, we find a market that appears to be well-balanced rather than overheating.
The three-month annual futures base remains below 10% despite rising prices, reflecting the steady demand for extreme leverage ahead of liquidation. This suggests healthier structures, and is more consistent with accumulation than speculation.
The permanent futures volume remains muted, aligned with the typical euphoria. The lack of offensive leverage spikes refers to progress built on a stable foundation, rather than speculative excess.
Options to increase roles in risk management
Finally, the options market provides further insight into how participants manage risk and shape exposure.
Bitcoin options open interest has reached record highs, reflecting its growing importance. Because ETFs provide spot access, many agencies prefer the option of managing risk via protection puts, cover calls, or defined risk structures.
Implicit volatility continues to decline, and is a sign of a more mature liquid market. Volatility sales, a common TRADFI strategy, brought stable downward pressure to implicit levels, resulting in more stable price action compared to past cycles.
The open-trest composition shows a clear leaning towards calls against puts, particularly during the top formation regime, highlighting a market that still leaps bullishly while managing negative side risks. Together, these dynamics represent a healthier, more risk-managed market structure that could undermine both euphoric and bearish movements ahead.
Conclusion
The Bitcoin market is now defined by a delicate balance between sell-side pressure and weakening of inflows. The gains from veteran short-term holders are combined with the recent realisation of losses by top buyers, limiting the momentum of the upward trend, leaving the $110,000-$116,000 range as the dominant battlefield.
The on-chain fluidity remains constructive, but once the cornerstone of this cycle is done, the ETF flow decreases, but the ETF flow loses its strength. As a result, the derivatives market becomes more important, and futures and options activities help shape the direction of sales absorption and price. Encouraged, both the futures standards and options positions reflect a more balanced structure than the overheated stages of the past, pointing to markets moving forward with stiffer scaffolding.
Looking forward to it, the ability to regain and hold over $114K is important in regaining confidence and bringing out a fresh influx. Otherwise, the stress for short-term holders will be updated, with major downside levels of $108,000 and ultimately $93,000. In short, Bitcoin sits at the intersection and derivatives support the structure in bringing together, but wider demand needs to be strengthened to burn the next sustained gathering.
Disclaimer: This report does not provide investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. Investment decisions must not be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decision.
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