Bitcoin has lagged both gold and the S&P 500 after plunging in November, according to market intelligence firm Santiment. Gold is up 9% since early November, the S&P 500 is up 1% and Bitcoin is down about 20%, trading at nearly $88,000 as of Wednesday. According to the report, that gap has kept cryptocurrencies quiet while other markets have shown modest recoveries.
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whale accumulation signal
Santiment’s data shows divergent behavior among holders. While small wallets were bought mainly in the second half of 2025, large wallets remained mostly stable and were sold off after rising to an all-time high in October.
Large holders are often treated as market movers, and their cautious stance continues to put pressure on prices. Historically, large shareholders buying while retail slumps has signaled a real change in trends, but the picture is still not entirely clear.
📊 Bitcoin and cryptocurrency correlation relative to other major sectors still lags. Here’s the price performance so far in November:
🥇 Gold: +9%
🏦 S&P 500: +1%
🪙 Bitcoin: -20%🤞 Looking ahead to 2026, the opportunity for cryptocurrencies to “catch up” will remain. pic.twitter.com/FW8JaQboTV
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 30, 2025
Mixing on-chain data
The report notes some signs of stabilization. Long-term Bitcoin holders reduced their holdings from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million coins by December, after which they paused further sales. Active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5.51% in the past 24 hours, while transactions decreased by almost 30% in the same time period.
This discrepancy suggests that while more people are paying attention to the market, fewer are committing funds. While the raw numbers show interest, we don’t see a clear shift to widespread trading activity.
Market opinion is important
Garrett Zinn, who previously ran the BitForex exchange, argued that traders are already reallocating capital, moving money from one market to another as opportunities present themselves. Capital remains the same and, as always, it’s wise to sell high and buy low, Jin wrote, according to a post on his social channels.
Another analyst, CyrilXBT, explained that the current setup is a late-cycle positioning ahead of a potential rotation. A change in liquidity could cause gold to cool, Bitcoin to take the lead, and other tokens to follow.
Bitcoin is currently in the same state as it was in 2016-2017, just before its parabolic move.
These two configurations keep flashing in our heads due to their extreme similarities, and bullish signals are holding and flashing here as well. $BTC looks absolutely ready to go 🚀… pic.twitter.com/H1hInYwix8
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) December 30, 2025
Price calls and technical views
Opinions among technology commentators remain divided. Javon Marks points to a parabolic pattern on the Bitcoin chart that reflects the rally from 2016 to 2017, and predicts a continued rally towards $125,000.
Based on CoinCodex data, more modest movements are expected at first. The platform predicts that BTC could rise 3.68% from current levels and reach $91,500 by January 30, 2026.
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CoinCodex lists the sentiment as Bearish and the Fear & Greed Index as 23 (Extreme Fear). The site also notes that Bitcoin has had 15/30 green days in the past 30 days, with volatility of 2.11%, and the last update was on December 31, 2025.
Short-term traders should focus on whether large wallets resume bulk purchases and whether trading increases as active addresses increase. If whales start accumulating again while long-term holders stop reducing their positions, the combination will give a stronger signal than either indicator alone.
On the other hand, reports have pointed to stabilization rather than confirmation of a reversal, leaving room for a comeback in 2026 if liquidity and sentiment improve.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
