Cardano (ADA) may be nearing the end of a multi-month correction phase much like the 2020 regime, according to a new technical analysis video posted by crypto analyst Quantum Ascend on Wednesday. The analyst claims that a similar “downward trendline reset” occurred prior to ADA’s previous breakout cycle, and that several weekly indicators are now starting to change.
Cardano’s 2020 fractals are back
In a January 7 video shared on X, Quantum Ascend said he was looking at the weekly chart of ADA through a macro, multi-leg correction framework. “In the ADA macro count, we’re looking at A, B, C, D, and now we’re waiting for E,” he said, placing the current market structure as a late stage of a broader consolidation rather than a new downtrend.
This “E” leg is important in the model because it effectively represents the final stage of wedge-like compression. Quantum Ascend pointed to the upper trend line, Fibonacci levels, and previous research published in a mid-December video to justify the upside target once the structure is completed. “Basically, there’s an upper trend line and some Fib elements at work. I’m conservatively at $5, but the primary is at $10,” he said. “I think things are going to be ugly for cryptocurrencies for a while after that, so I still believe that the season of alternatives is ahead of us.”
However, the crux of the discussion was not the target itself, but its alleged similarities with previous Cardano fixes. Quantum Ascend overlayed historical “fractals” to highlight comparable price movements. That is, a rise to a similar level, a rebound, another push into resistance, and a wick tagging in roughly the same area on the overlay. “This amendment here is what I just quoted this from. Look, look how similar it is to the amendment we just made,” he said. “Obviously it’s not perfect, but when you try to get close to it from a price structure standpoint…look where the 10.10 wick went. It’s right there.”
Analysts say the previous pattern was the market’s way of pushing ADA lower and establishing a lower trend line for the next economic expansion. “So this is the exact same move that Cardano had to go down to set the lower trend line,” he said. “So now we’re setting a lower trend line before we go up sharply.”
He then mentioned the size of Cardano’s last major run as a reminder of what altcoin cycles have historically been like when momentum shifts. “And how far did it ultimately go? Well, it ended up going 170 times from that point, going from a penny to $3,” Quantum Ascend said, using this move as context for why double-digit goals don’t automatically fall into the “impossible” bucket during late-cycle expansions.
A more direct argument is that the upside implied by the $10 target is not unprecedented in percentage terms compared to previous replacement cycles. “How far that $10 level is from where we are now is 22 times, right? 25 times,” he said. “What was this alternative season here? This alternative season was just 2021…it was 21X…so it’s not unreasonable to look for 24X there. And even on the conservative side, it’s more than 12X.”
In terms of indicators, Quantum Ascend highlighted early signs of a weekly momentum change rather than a confirmed breakout. “We have a completed ABC, which is poised to turn around,” he said, adding that broader market conditions appeared to be supporting the rebound. The analyst also noted that the weekly RSI has started to rise after a long period near the lows.
“Look at the RSI this week. It’s finally starting to curl up off the floor. It’s been down on the floor since October 27th of the week, but it’s finally starting to pick up a little bit.” The analyst explained that the negative momentum is “reducing” and mentioned the MACD’s “ABC” structure as another part of the same reversal story.
“Many of these big moves occur when the weekly RSI turns from a low to a high,” Quantum Ascend said, arguing that higher time frames may be slower, but will be more reliable when it eventually rotates.
Quantum Ascend concluded by saying that he remains constructive on the project despite not holding his current position. “I’m a big believer in this project. I don’t own anything right now. It’s just my portfolio doing well,” he said. “But I believe there will be a big turnaround for Cardano.”
At the time of writing, ADA was trading at $0.3925.
