Bitcoin is trading around $67,300, well below its recent high of $74,000. One well-known analyst says the drop is of little concern, pegging the cycle average closer to $500,000.
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A model built on scarcity
Plan B, the pseudonymous analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, says the price of Bitcoin during the current 2024-2028 halving could average around $500,000, with a range that could range from $250,000 to $1 million.
This model is built on a simple premise. This means that, thanks to the halving event that reduces mining rewards every four years or so, Bitcoin’s supply growth will slow, and as demand stabilizes or rises, the price should follow.
According to the report, PlanB appears to have carefully framed this number as a cycle average rather than a cap or guaranteed peak.
The halving of Bitcoin will reduce the number of new coins in circulation. The most recent one took place in April 2024. Historically, each halving has been followed by a significant price increase. This pattern is the basis of PlanB’s argument.
🚨 Bitcoin at $67,000…but the S2F model screams $500,000 on average for this cycle (2024-2028)! 📈 Is BTC massively undervalued and the ultimate buying opportunity? Or will S2F be broken forever? 🤔 What is your opinion, bullish or not? pic.twitter.com/QlBhOgSgGj
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 8, 2026
not everyone is buying
Crypto analyst Bobby A. expects it to reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by 2026 or 2027, which would still be a significant jump from current levels but far from the Plan B midpoint.
According to Bobby A., stock-to-flow can serve as a rough long-term guide, but it is inadequate when used to define specific price targets in complex markets.
He argues that this model captures Bitcoin’s broader growth story without taking into account the many variables that drive the price in real time.
My view is somewhere in between. In my opinion, Bitcoin is currently undervalued and will likely trade in the $200,000 to $250,000 range as this cycle matures into 2026-2027. That said, I disagree with the idea that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028. https://t.co/d8wu0skKuN
— Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) March 8, 2026
That skepticism is not unfounded. Stock-to-flow drew harsh criticism after Bitcoin failed to maintain the price level predicted by the model during the 2020-2024 cycle.
Some analysts have disabled the model entirely. Some say it was never intended to serve as an accurate predictive tool from the beginning, but this nuance is often lost in headline-driven reporting.
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Bitcoin’s current weight
Several external pressures have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent decline. Geopolitical tensions and changes in inflows to the Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, which won U.S. regulatory approval in early 2024, are adding to near-term volatility.
The ETF inflows that drove Bitcoin to record highs earlier this year have been inconsistent in recent months, data shows.
According to the report, many analysts see this period as a solid phase following Bitcoin’s strong rally above $72,000. It remains an open question whether that solidity will lead to a new rally or signal a longer period of stagnation.
PlanB’s $500,000 average would require Bitcoin to rise more than 7x its current price before the cycle ends. That’s a big number. But in a market that rose from less than $20,000 to more than $73,000 in about 18 months, some investors say something strange has happened.
Featured image from Free3D.com, chart from TradingView
