Bitcoin is showing early signs of strength as it attempts to reclaim the $115,000 level. After weeks of mixed sentiment and strong selling pressure, momentum appears to be turning slightly bullish. The recent weekly close above $114,500 confirms the recovery in the short-term holder (STH) realized price, a key on-chain threshold currently near $113,000. This indicator represents the average cost basis of recent market participants and often serves as a key line separating bullish and bearish sentiment.
Related books
Top analyst Dirkforst said the latest return claims were an encouraging signal reflecting renewed buyer confidence after a volatile October. However, he also cautioned that Bitcoin’s position should continue to be closely monitored. A rejection at current levels could lead to a new correction phase, mirroring the pattern seen in 2024, where BTC faced multiple failures before regaining upward momentum.
For now, the market is at a delicate crossroads, consolidating below resistance while maintaining important on-chain support. Analysts believe that if Bitcoin can sustain this structure and convincingly move above $115,000, it could open the door for broader bullish continuation and a possible retest of the $120,000 area in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin remains above the Keyonchain level
According to top analyst Dirkforst, the recovery of Bitcoin’s realized short-term holders (STH) price to around $113,000 could be a key turning point in the market structure. He points out that during the 2024 correction period, BTC faced four failures in trying to break through this same indicator. Each rejection was caused by short-term holders selling at breakeven. This is a typical psychological reaction that delays a trend reversal. However, once Bitcoin finally sustained above the STH realized price, the market quickly regained momentum and entered a new expansion phase.
We see similar dynamics this time around. If Bitcoin consolidates above this zone, it could pave the way for a strong bullish impulse and a possible new all-time high (ATH) in the short term. STH realized price serves as a measure of confidence among investors these days. Keeping it above increases confidence and suggests a transition from surrender to accumulation.
Dirkforst also highlights another important observation. That is, throughout the current bull cycle, Bitcoin has never fallen below the annual STH realized price. Every time the price approached that level, a pullback occurred, reaffirming it as structural support for the broader trend.
Nevertheless, caution is essential. A fall below the current annual STH realized price of $94,000 could signal further changes in the market. Such a move could signal a transition from a mid-cycle correction to a more prolonged bearish phase.
For now, the data suggests resilience rather than weakness. As long as BTC stays above the near-term realization threshold, the broader uptrend remains intact, and the next big rally could be possible if buying pressure continues to build above $115,000.
Related books
BTC bulls defend key supports as momentum cools
Bitcoin is currently trading around $114,360, consolidating after a brief rally that tested resistance around $115,800 to $117,500. This chart shows that BTC has successfully regained its 4-hour 200-period moving average (red line). This level acted as resistance throughout mid-October. While this recovery is a positive signal in the short term, momentum appears to be slowing as traders wait for the next catalyst.
Currently, the $113,000 to $114,000 range is acting as immediate support and is consistent with short-term holder (STH) realized prices, a key on-chain level that reflects the cost base of recent buyers. Holding this zone could allow the bulls to consolidate ahead of another attempt to break above $117,500, the main horizontal resistance that has capped the rally so far.
Related books
On the downside, failure to sustain above the 200MA could trigger a retest of $111,000, with the 100MA (green line) serving as secondary support. Trading volume remains low, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this week.
Bitcoin is in a constructive phase as long as it remains above $113,000. A sustained break above this level would strengthen the bullish structure, but a decisive break above $117,500 could pave the way for a move above $120,000 in the short term.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
