Bitcoin has regained its footing after a tumultuous week under selling pressure, regaining key support levels and showing early signs of recovery. The bulls are cautiously retreating, but confidence is limited as the key psychological and technical barrier, resistance at $110,000, remains untested.
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According to CryptoQuant data, underlying market dynamics suggest that if current momentum continues, it could fuel a potential surge towards $115,000. This rally follows a period of heightened liquidations and bearish sentiment that briefly pushed Bitcoin below $100,000 and caused panic among short-term traders.
On-chain metrics show improved stability on several fronts. Outflows from spot exchanges are increasing, suggesting that investors are once again moving Bitcoin into their custody, a sign of renewed holding behavior. At the same time, derivatives market data shows cooling open interest and declining leverage, conditions that historically precede a healthier and more sustainable uptrend.
MVRV of short-term holders suggests potential for Bitcoin recovery
Top analyst Axel Adler highlighted that Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STH) MVRV ratio is showing early signs of recovery following a sharp correction last week. On November 7th, the indicator reached a local low of 0.9124, close to the lower end of its historical range. This range often coincided with short-term market bottoms.
As of today, STH MVRV has risen to 0.9514, indicating that short-term holders’ selling pressure may be easing. This stabilization signals a potential transition from capitulation to recovery as traders who bought at higher levels begin to reduce their loss-taking behavior.
Historically, when STH MVRV trends upwards above 0.92, it often precedes a new bullish impulse. Adler notes that if this pattern continues, the indicator could move higher toward the upper end of its range, typically associated with the $115,000 to $120,000 price level.
This trend is consistent with Bitcoin’s recent technical recovery and improvement in on-chain sentiment. While further confirmation is needed, MVRV holding above this important threshold could indicate that the market is absorbing much of the short-term selling pressure, potentially setting the stage for a potential recovery phase in the coming weeks.
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Filling after sharpening
Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after a volatile drop below $100,000, regaining key technical levels and stabilizing around $105,000. The daily chart shows a short-term bullish reaction following a rebound from the 200-day moving average (red line). This is a key dynamic support level that has repeatedly marked the bottom of correction stages throughout this cycle.
However, the overall trend remains cautious. The 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages are above the current price and both are flat, indicating that momentum remains weak. A definitive breakout above the $108,000 to $110,000 resistance zone is required to confirm a potential trend reversal and change sentiment.
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If Bitcoin holds the support above $103,000 and consolidates with increased volume, the next target could align with the $115,000 area, in line with on-chain signals pointing to a recovery. Conversely, if it falls below $100,000, there could be downside risk again towards $95,000.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
