If one of the crypto industry’s most interesting valuation models remains valid, Bitcoin could be on a massive long-term upward trajectory. According to pseudonymous analyst Plan B, stock-to-flow (S2F) models suggest that Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current halving period from 2024 to 2028.
Bold predictions will come true even with Bitcoin in its current state No signs of trading It has been at that level for the past few days, but recent price action over the past 24 hours has brought it back to the $70,000 price level.
When will Bitcoin reach $500,000?
PlanB Bitcoin Predictions That is not to say that the crypto price trend will instantly jump to $50,000, but rather that the entire post-halving cycle from 2024 to 2028 could average around that level if the stock-to-flow framework continues to play out as predicted. This is a much more proactive decision than simply predicting the top of the cycle. Because an average of $500,000 means that Bitcoin will eventually spend a meaningful amount of time well above that price level at some stage in the cycle.
Related books
The current Bitcoin pricing is a test of whether the leading cryptocurrency is significantly undervalued at today’s levels, or whether the S2F model has finally broken down for good.
The chart attached to PlanB’s technical analysis helps explain this prediction of a Bitcoin price of $500,000. It overlays Bitcoin’s price history with a 200-week moving average, realized costs, RSI coloring, and a stepped stock-to-flow path. The dotted S2F path with a halving period of 2024 to 2028 would rise to approximately $500,000 in 2027.
Bitcoin S2F model. Source: Plan B On X
What’s happening with Bitcoin?
Bitcoin spent the past week Wavering between recovery and pressure, On March 5th, the asset traded above $73,000 before falling back toward the mid-$60,000s before rebounding again to over $70,000 at the time of writing. Uncertainty in price trends makes Plan B’s latest stock-to-flow price predictions stand out, as predicting Bitcoin’s average price of $500,000 requires a high degree of conviction.
Related books
In recent price action, Bitcoin is sitting just above two structural supports that have been in the spotlight for years: realized cost and above. 200 week moving average. Both of these supports are also visible in the Stock-to-Flow model chart for PlanB that I shared above. While this does not automatically prove that a six- or seven-digit breakout will occur next, it supports the view that the entire cycle structure has not completely collapsed.
Currently, about 43% of Bitcoin addresses I’m at a loss, The majority are short-term holders and Bitcoin Finance Company. However, many analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s correction is: haven’t found the bottom yetdespite falling more than 45% from its peak in October 2025.
Featured image created by Dall.E, chart on Tradingview.com
