Bitcoin surpassed the $97,000 level, extending a recovery that brought short-term relief to a market weighed down by weeks of uncertainty. While the move has reignited optimism among some investors, most analysts remain cautious, arguing that the rally could still represent a counter-trend rebound within a broader bear market heading into 2026.
However, price strength alone cannot fully explain the current movement. According to CryptoQuant analysts, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience after decisively breaking through the $94,200 resistance zone and accelerating towards the $97,500 area, and on-chain data provides important context behind its progress.
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One key indicator supporting this movement is Value Days Destroyed (VDD), an indicator that reveals the behavior of long-term holders. VDD measures how long coins remain inactive before being spent, weighted by transaction size. Simply put, it helps distinguish whether price fluctuations are caused by experienced holders distributing old coins, or by new coins changing hands.
As of January 2026, VDD is hovering around 0.53, a historically low value. This means that the coins currently moving around the network are relatively young, while most of the older coin holdings are dormant. Such moves suggest that long-term holders are in no rush to sell with momentum, providing structural support for the recent breakout, despite debate across the market as to whether this rally signals new strength or just a temporary reprieve.
Long-term holders strengthen Bitcoin breakout quality
A report by Carmelo Alemán, verified on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant, highlights key dynamics behind Bitcoin’s recent move above a key resistance level. Despite the rapid price increase, long-term holders remain largely inactive. In practical terms, this means that investors who have held Bitcoin for multiple cycles are not using the current strength as an opportunity to exit their positions. Their restraint greatly improves the quality of the rally.
Historically, this action was important. If Bitcoin rises while Value Days Destroyed (VDD) remains low, it indicates that old coins are no longer in circulation. Demand is primarily met by young supply, allowing prices to rise without triggering structural selling pressure from the most experienced market participants. These stages often coincide with periods of healthier expansion rather than short-term speculative spikes.
The current breakout fits into that historical pattern. Even as Bitcoin overcame resistance, spending for the long-dormant coin did not surge. Rather, long-term capital appears to be comfortably held through rising prices, suggesting confidence in broader market structures rather than an urgency to secure profits.
This supportive background remains conditional. As long as VDD is suppressed, the bull market will maintain a strong base. However, a sustained rise in the indicator could change the narrative and indicate that long-term holders are starting to disperse, indicating a shift to stronger selling pressure.
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Price tests key resistance after December rebound
Bitcoin price is trying to stabilize after a sharp rebound from December lows, with charts showing BTC reclaiming the $96,000-$97,000 zone. This level coincides with a confluence of technical factors, making it an important area for short-term direction. The recent recovery follows a significant decline from November’s highs. The price fell below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and briefly capitulated towards the low $80,000s.
From a structural perspective, BTC is currently hitting new lows on the daily time frame, indicating a possible short-term trend reversal. Price has also regained its 50-day moving average, which often acts as dynamic resistance during downtrends. Holding above this level would be constructive as it suggests buyers are regaining control after weeks of circulation and volatility.
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However, overhead resistance is still important. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are currently clustered between $100,000 and $108,000, representing an oversupply zone where breakdowns have occurred previously. Failure to push the upside could lead to another consolidation or a fall towards the $92,000 to $94,000 support range.
Volume increased during the rebound, indicating pure participation rather than a low liquidity rebound. Still, the overall trend remains uncertain. To gain bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs acceptance above $97,000 and a clear attempt towards the psychological level of $100,000. Otherwise, this move risks becoming a technical rebound in a larger correction phase.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
