Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels historically seen near the bottom of bear markets, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. Confirmation is needed, but the market is in a zone that often signals late capitulation. The key question is: Was the recent decline the final flush, or is the final shakeout yet to come?
RSI compression is a signal of low price exhaustion
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has historically returned to the same region that marked the bottom of previous bear markets, according to cryptocurrency analyst Batman. This momentum zone has repeatedly appeared during late capitulation phases, and is an important signal that the market may be approaching another major turning point.
However, Batman clarified that this does not confirm that the bottom has already been entered and stressed that it is important to wait for proper confirmation before declaring a reversal. Still, he points out that when the RSI compresses to this level on a weekly basis, Bitcoin is typically much closer to a structural low than the start of a new selloff.
Reflecting on the 2022 bear cycle, Batman pointed out that the price managed to hit its last low when the RSI entered this extreme zone. However, this move occurred very close to the final bottom, indicating that much of the downside had already developed by the time momentum reached such a depressed number.
Analysts conclude that probability is more important than accuracy. From his perspective, when Bitcoin trades at weekly RSI levels, it historically represents a zone where strategic accumulation becomes increasingly attractive.
Bitcoin hits new all-time high for 6th consecutive week — rare signal
In a recent weekly Bitcoin analysis, Superbro pointed out that Bitcoin has now hit new highs for six consecutive weeks, which is an unusual structural pattern. The last time this happened was during the 2020 coronavirus crash, a period marked by extreme volatility and an eventual macro reversal.
The weekly candlestick has not yet closed, but the price is currently below the 200-week EMA and the volume control point (POC). A return to POC before the close could trigger a sharp upside reaction and indicate that the breakdown attempt is losing momentum.
Just below the current level is a rising 200-week SMA, adding another layer of support on the higher time frame. The RSI remains at extreme levels, suggesting that momentum has already reached its limits. When you combine an oversold situation with six consecutive lows nearing major support, the case for a continued downside becomes less convincing.
Beyond the short-term structure, the broader megaphone formation remains intact. If this macro pattern ultimately executes, its upper trajectory predicts a potential target north of $300,000, putting the long-term expansion theory firmly on the table despite the current compression.
