Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a severely oversold phase, with momentum indicators falling to historically suggestive levels. market depletion and a reversal of the trend. Researchers who track macro conditions and long-term price trends say the current drawdown reflects a positioning reset, not a positioning reset. end of bull market. Based on past recovery patterns, analysts believe Bitcoin could soon be on the path to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin enters extreme oversold territory
Thomas Lee, co-founder and chief investment officer (CIO) of Fundstrat Capital. flag is raised Latest market status of Bitcoin as a major technological development. He pointed to data from Vittel Julien, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, which highlights how deeply oversold Bitcoin is in the current cycle and the cryptocurrency’s potential. Reach new ATH.
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In a post about X, Lee publicly praised Julian’s analysis and said that historically BTC extreme oversold situation It is often followed by a meaningful bounce. Julian also shared a report on X this Wednesday. explained His analysis responds to frequent calls for updates to long-standing market models that track Bitcoin’s movements, including: A big break in momentum.
He said the model examines the average price path of BTC after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 30, a level widely considered to indicate an extremely oversold condition. Analysts said that Bitcoin’s recent price trend closely follows technical historical patterns. Broad bull market structure remains intact.
The attached graph compares the current Bitcoin price movement with the average historical trajectory observed after the last five instances when Bitcoin entered oversold territory. At that point RSI falls below 30 Marked as “time zero”. In previous cycles, this moment typically followed a period of stabilization followed by weeks to months of strong recovery.
Based on historical averages, Julian sees the potential for new all-time highs if Bitcoin continues to track past recovery patterns. While the market researcher cautions that the chart is not perfect, he maintains that it is still a useful analytical framework, especially when: 4 year cycle papers Play continues.
BTC cycle could be extended to 2026 due to break in 4-year pattern
Julian’s analysis also suggests that: current bitcoin cycle It has been extended to 2026, potentially calling into question the validity of the conventional four-year cycle theory. According to market researchers, the BTC cycle has never been driven before. halving eventcontrary to what the broader crypto community believes. Instead, he said the cycle is being driven by public debt refinancing, which has been delayed by a year since COVID-19.
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he emphasized that Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle has officially been broken This is due to an increase in the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure. He also noted that the liquidity situation and continued monetization of interest expense far exceeds this. GDP growth ratesupports long-term cycles.
Additionally, Julien emphasized that Bitcoin price norms typically take time to form and often include periods of volatility before significant increases occur. The market researcher explained that his analysis does not indicate an immediate market decline, but rather a framework that assumes the bull market remains firmly entrenched.
Featured image created by Dall.E, chart on Tradingview.com
