After an early January rally, XRP is now back trading just above the $2 level. showed temporary price movements In the $2.40 range. pull back has been controlled so farthe price is now holding above the former resistance level which has turned into short-term support.
A technical analysis shared on X by crypto analyst Byrd suggests that conditions are now in place for the familiar macro setup ahead of XRP’s biggest rally in history. The focus of this outlook is on XRP’s reaction to the US dollar index and what its next move means for the cryptocurrency.
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How DXY’s weaknesses have always unlocked the XRP rally
bird analysis is based on The inverse relationship between the US dollar index (DXY) and XRP at key stages. The chart attached to his post points to three previous periods around 2017, 2021, and 2024, when a sustained decline in the dollar coincided with an aggressive rise in XRP.
In each of these cycles, red candlesticks on the DXY chart caused dollar losses, but XRP responded with strong gains shortly after. This repeating pattern means that XRP’s biggest movements, as well as events related to XRP, tend to follow macro shifts. As the dollar’s dominance fades, capital always turns to crypto assets, and XRP is one of the main beneficiaries of that transition.
Interestingly, the current setup shows that DXY is returning to a similar structural zone seen before the past rollover. As you can see in the chart below, DXY is currently trending down.
US dollar index, XRPUSD. Source: @Bird_XRPL On X
Will XRP hit an all-time high?
The first highlighted phase captures the late 2017-early 2018 cycle on the back of a weak dollar that coincided with the rise in XRP, reaching a cycle peak in the mid-$3 range.
A similar relationship appeared in the 2020-2021 period, when XRP soared to a cycle high of $1.90 following a weakening dollar. The most recent was in the first half of 2025, which culminated in July with XRP reaching its current high of $3.65.
The important context is why we are the way we are. The moment is the deciding point. As of this writing, DXY is at around $99 and from here it could fall and start printing red candles again, or it could catch a bid and start printing green.
If DXY starts printing red candles again and rolls over, the pattern Bird is pointing to suggests the macro backdrop will support another strong XRP leg rally, which is the reason for a new all-time high above $3.65. may come into view In the coming months.
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If DXY gives a green light and goes up, it will be the opposite signal. This means that liquidity conditions may tighten, limiting XRP price movements to around $2 before attempting a breakout. Either way, the dollar’s next move will indicate what happens next.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
